The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
Among the Sensex firms, HCL Technologies, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major gainers. Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the laggards.
Trading in the domestic stock market would be influenced by trends in the global equities, macroeconomic data and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Markets may face volatile trends on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.
Dollar's strength and falling crude oil prices force downward revision of 2015 growth forecast.
Equity indices chalked up losses for the second straight session on Monday, in tandem with a bearish trend overseas as ratcheting up of hostilities in Ukraine and prospects of further rate hikes by the US Fed soured global risk sentiment. The rupee slipping to another all-time low against the US dollar amid foreign fund outflows added to the gloom, traders said. After tumbling over 800 points in intra-day trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex clawed back some lost ground to end 200.18 points or 0.34 per cent lower at 57,991.11.
The rupee fell by 49 paise to close at 81.89 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday as heavy selling pressure in the domestic equities and a spike in crude oil prices weighed on the local unit.
Global liquidity expected to continue amid ECB stimulus
Reserve Bank of India Governor Bimal Jalan said on Friday that there was no proposal to lower the short-term benchmark repo rate now.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
Benchmark indices rallied for the eighth day running on Thursday, ending at fresh record closing highs, amid firm global market trends and continuous foreign fund inflows. Buying in IT counters also added to the momentum.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
The inflation data for May and the US Fed interest rate decision are the crucial factors that would dictate terms in the equity market this week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of rupee and crude oil prices would be the other key monitarables for the markets, they added. "All eyes will be on the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision scheduled on June 15, and the market is fearing aggressive rate hikes amid inflation monster. "Bank of Japan will also announce its credit policy on June 17.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
These investors have pumped in about Rs 6,900 crore (Rs 69 billion) in the seven trading sessions after the Federal Open Market Commission meet.
Inflation data, both at domestic and global level, interest rate scenario in the US, geopolitical situation and general elections in 2024 are some of the major factors that would influence trading in the equity market this financial year, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity and global trends will also dictate terms in the equity market going ahead. Equity markets across the globe faced major challenges in FY23 due to concerns over high inflation, which resulted in increase in interest rates around the world, lowering investor sentiment, experts added.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty slid for a seventh straight session on Monday, logging their longest losing run in the past five months, following a bearish trend in global markets amid concerns over aggressive rate hikes by developed economies. Fresh foreign fund outflows and losses in IT, auto and oil stocks also dented investor sentiments. The BSE Sensex declined by 175.58 points or 0.30 per cent to close at 59,288.35 with 17 of its shares posting losses.
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Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
Benchmark BSE Sensex settled above the 63,000-level for the first time on Wednesday, extending its winning momentum to seventh day amid a largely positive trend in global markets and continuous foreign fund inflows.
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
For existing investors, it may be prudent to redeem their current investments in gilt or dynamic schemes and invest it in short-term funds, if the exit load is not very high, advises Malhar Majumder.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
Rate-sensitive sectors like banks, auto and realty witnessed strong buying demand in trades today
The value of foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in domestic equities reached $654 billion in three months ended December 2021, a drop of nearly 2 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of a massive sell-off by foreign investors and a correction in the Indian equity markets, especially in the large and mid-cap sectors. "At the end of the quarter ended December 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities fell to $654 billion, which was lower than $667 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a fall of around 2 per cent," the report noted.
Macroeconomic data announcements, the Covid situation in China and global market cues would guide Dalal Street in the first week of trading in the New Year, analysts said. Markets would also keep a track on rupee movement, Brent crude oil prices and foreign fund investment trends. "As market players attempt to understand the Fed's stance, Indian markets may respond in lockstep with their international counterparts when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are made public later this week.
Of the 70 international feeder funds, more than half have made losses in 2014.
Investors booked profit ahead of the outcome of the two-day US Fed policy meet which begins today.
The breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned negative from positive
Among Sensex stocks, SBI, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Ultratech Cement, L&T, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, Wipro and M&M were the major losers. On the other hand, HUL advanced the most by 1.14 per cent. Maruti, Tata Steel, NTPC and Sun Pharma also posted gains.
A decision on the interest rate for close to 60 million active subscribers of the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is likely to be taken in the next Central Board of Trustee (CBT) meeting, starting on March 25. A letter from the social security organisation regarding the convening of the 233rd CBT meeting was sent to all the board members last week, soliciting their presence in the meeting. Although the venue and the agenda haven't been drawn out yet, sources familiar with the matter say that the interest rate is unlikely to go below 8 per cent level amid a rising interest rate scenario across the globe.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
Among Sensex stocks, Tata Motors rose the most by 2.79 per cent. NTPC, Reliance Industries, Infosys, TCS, HDFC twins, Tata Motors, ITC, Power Grid and Bajaj Finserv were among the major gainers. Tata Steel fell the most by 1.22 per cent. L&T, Sun Pharmaceuticals, IndusInd Bank and Ultratech Cement were among the losers.
'For someone who wants to invest for the future or his family, diversification is necessary.' 'Diversify across asset classes -- equities, gold, real estate, fixed income, commodities, and even cryptocurrency.'
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